FC Famalicão — Alverca, Liga NOS

Portugal, Liga NOSOctober 12 at 07:15 PM

FC Famalicão

2.3WDDDL

—

Alverca

2.1WWLDL

Outcome probability

562717

FC Famalicão56%Draw27%Alverca17%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ

1FC Famalicão56%1.77—

XDraw27%3.76—

2Alverca17%5.90—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes39%

ours 2.56

No61%

ours 1.64

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricFC FamalicãoAlvercaCombined

Goals scored1.331.502.83

Conceded1.001.502.50

Corners8.86.77.8

Cards2.22.04.2

Offsides

Throw-ins

Fouls

Shots

Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

1
Signals
Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.
FC FamalicãoAlverca
13Table position10
54.50%Possession43.20%
14Days of rest14
0Matches in 14 days0
2
Reading
Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.
FC Famalicão look the favourite on home turf and current form — a home win is rated at 56%.
Most likely scorelines:…
3
Conclusion
Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.
Safe pick
Risky pick
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