All matches

FC Etzella Ettelbrück — F91 Dudelange, National Division

Luxembourg, National Division

FC Etzella Ettelbrück
1.6DLWLL
—
F91 Dudelange
2.5LDLWW
Outcome probability
222157
FC Etzella Ettelbrück22%Draw21%F91 Dudelange57%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1FC Etzella Ettelbrück22%4.54—
XDraw21%4.87—
2F91 Dudelange57%1.74—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes44%

ours 2.29

No56%

ours 1.78

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricFC Etzella EttelbrückF91 DudelangeCombined
Goals scored0.831.332.16
Conceded2.171.834.00
Corners8.28.68.4
Cards0.0——
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

  1. 1

    Signals

    Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.

    FC Etzella EttelbrückF91 Dudelange
    14Table position11
    46.60%Possession55.80%
    14Days of rest14
    0Matches in 14 days0
  2. 2

    Reading

    Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.

    Away from home, F91 Dudelange still look stronger — an away win is rated at 57%.

    Most likely scorelines:…

  3. 3

    Conclusion

    Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.

    Safe pick
    Risky pick

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

Second half total: Under 2.5

71%
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

FC Etzella Ettelbrück

  • awayFC Victoria Rosport1:1
  • awayFC Differdange 030:1
  • awayFC Swift Hesperange3:0
  • homeFC Résidence Walferdange0:5
  • homeUewer - Nidder Kaerjeng 970:1

F91 Dudelange

  • homeUewer - Nidder Kaerjeng 972:4
  • awayUS Hostert0:0
  • homeRacing FC Union Lëtzebuerg1:3
  • awayFC Wiltz 712:1
  • homeUS Rumelange3:2

Head to head

No head-to-head matches on record.

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
9US Hostert832314:1111
10AS la Jeunesse d'Esch821514:177
11F91 Dudelange82158:157
12US Rumelange82068:236
13FC Victoria Rosport812511:205
14FC Etzella Ettelbrück81256:155
15FC Wiltz 71811614:224
16FC Swift Hesperange80082:300

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.