FC Emmen — Almere City FC, Eerste Divisie

Netherlands, Eerste DivisieOctober 17 at 02:30 PM

FC Emmen

1.6WLLWL

—

Almere City FC

1.7LWWLW

Outcome probability

342244

FC Emmen34%Draw22%Almere City FC44%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ

1FC Emmen34%2.91—

XDraw22%4.53—

2Almere City FC44%2.29—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes71%

ours 1.40

No29%

ours 3.49

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricFC EmmenAlmere City FCCombined

Goals scored1.331.172.50

Conceded1.330.672.00

Corners11.310.510.9

Cards2.00.82.8

Offsides

Throw-ins

Fouls

Shots

Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

1
Signals
Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.
FC EmmenAlmere City FC
6Table position2
59.00%Possession44.00%
7.9Days of rest7.9
2Matches in 14 days2
2
Reading
Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.
Away from home, Almere City FC still look stronger — an away win is rated at 44%.
Most likely scorelines:…
3
Conclusion
Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.
Safe pick
Risky pick
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