FC Eindhoven — SBV Vitesse, Eerste Divisie

Netherlands, Eerste DivisieOctober 16 at 06:00 PM

FC Eindhoven

1.5LWWDL

—

SBV Vitesse

1.9LWLWW

Outcome probability

332344

FC Eindhoven33%Draw23%SBV Vitesse44%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ

1FC Eindhoven33%3.02—

XDraw23%4.38—

2SBV Vitesse44%2.27—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes60%

ours 1.68

No40%

ours 2.48

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricFC EindhovenSBV VitesseCombined

Goals scored1.170.832.00

Conceded1.000.831.83

Corners8.810.09.4

Cards1.51.83.3

Offsides

Throw-ins

Fouls

Shots

Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

1
Signals
Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.
FC EindhovenSBV Vitesse
13Table position9
45.00%Possession48.50%
7Days of rest7
2Matches in 14 days2
2
Reading
Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.
Away from home, SBV Vitesse still look stronger — an away win is rated at 44%.
Most likely scorelines:…
3
Conclusion
Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.
Safe pick
Risky pick
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