All matches

FC Dynamo Kyiv — FC Karpaty Lviv, Ukrainian Premier League

Ukraine, Ukrainian Premier League

FC Dynamo Kyiv
2.9WWDLW
—
FC Karpaty Lviv
2.3DWLDW
Outcome probability
542719
FC Dynamo Kyiv54%Draw27%FC Karpaty Lviv19%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1FC Dynamo Kyiv54%1.86—
XDraw27%3.75—
2FC Karpaty Lviv19%5.15—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes57%

ours 1.74

No43%

ours 2.34

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricFC Dynamo KyivFC Karpaty LvivCombined
Goals scored1.171.833.00
Conceded1.000.671.67
Corners9.210.810.0
Cards1.81.83.7
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

  1. 1

    Signals

    Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.

    FC Dynamo KyivFC Karpaty Lviv
    4Table position3
    63.00%Possession50.20%
    14Days of rest14
    0Matches in 14 days0
  2. 2

    Reading

    Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.

    FC Dynamo Kyiv look the favourite on home turf and current form — a home win is rated at 54%.

    Most likely scorelines:…

  3. 3

    Conclusion

    Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.

    Safe pick
    Risky pick

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

Most corners: Home

69%
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

FC Dynamo Kyiv

  • awayFC Zorya Luhansk2:0
  • homeFK Epitsentr Dunayivtsi3:0
  • homeLNZ Cherkasy FC0:0
  • awayFK Bukovyna Chernivtsi0:3
  • homeFK Kolos Kovalivka2:1

FC Karpaty Lviv

  • homeFC Veres Rivne1:1
  • awayFK Kolos Kovalivka2:0
  • homeFC Shakhtar Donetsk1:2
  • awayFK Livyi Bereh1:1
  • homeFK Bukovyna Chernivtsi3:0

Head to head

  • 04/04/26Ukrainian Premier League0:1
  • 09/27/25Ukrainian Premier League3:3
  • 02/23/25Ukrainian Premier League2:0
  • 08/17/24Ukrainian Premier League3:1

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
1FC Shakhtar Donetsk760115:418
2Polessya Zhitomir760115:518
3FC Karpaty Lviv742115:514
4FC Dynamo Kyiv64119:513
5FC Metalist 1925 Kharkiv640212:412
6FK Epitsentr Dunayivtsi72236:78

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.