FC Dinamo Batumi — FC Samgurali Tskaltubo, Erovnuli Liga

Georgia, Erovnuli LigaOctober 24 at 03:00 PM

FC Dinamo Batumi

2.2WDWWW

—

FC Samgurali Tskaltubo

1.5LLLLD

Outcome probability

542422

FC Dinamo Batumi54%Draw24%FC Samgurali Tskaltubo22%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ

1FC Dinamo Batumi54%1.86—

XDraw24%4.14—

2FC Samgurali Tskaltubo22%4.55—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes68%

ours 1.48

No32%

ours 3.08

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricFC Dinamo BatumiFC Samgurali TskaltuboCombined

Goals scored1.331.002.33

Conceded0.671.832.50

Corners11.510.010.8

Cards3.32.35.5

Offsides

Throw-ins

Fouls

Shots

Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

1
Signals
Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.
FC Dinamo BatumiFC Samgurali Tskaltubo
1Table position7
57.80%Possession51.80%
7Days of rest7.1
2Matches in 14 days2
2
Reading
Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.
FC Dinamo Batumi look the favourite on home turf and current form — a home win is rated at 54%.
Most likely scorelines:…
3
Conclusion
Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.
Safe pick
Risky pick
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