All matches

FC Dinamo Batumi — FC Dinamo Tbilisi, Erovnuli Liga

Georgia, Erovnuli Liga

FC Dinamo Batumi
2.2WDWWW
—
FC Dinamo Tbilisi
2.5WWDDW
Outcome probability
362936
FC Dinamo Batumi36%Draw29%FC Dinamo Tbilisi36%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1FC Dinamo Batumi36%2.81—
XDraw29%3.50—
2FC Dinamo Tbilisi36%2.79—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes52%

ours 1.92

No48%

ours 2.08

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricFC Dinamo BatumiFC Dinamo TbilisiCombined
Goals scored2.001.673.67
Conceded0.670.671.34
Corners10.27.28.7
Cards2.71.84.5
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

  1. 1

    Signals

    Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.

    FC Dinamo BatumiFC Dinamo Tbilisi
    0Matches in 14 days1
    1Table position4
    14Days of rest7
    57.00%Possession49.60%
  2. 2

    Reading

    Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.

    FC Dinamo Tbilisi travel as favourites: despite playing away, a win is rated at 36%.

    Most likely scorelines:…

  3. 3

    Conclusion

    Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.

    Safe pick
    Risky pick

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

Double chance: No draw

71%
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

FC Dinamo Batumi

  • homeFC Torpedo Kutaisi3:2
  • awayFC Dila Gori2:2
  • homeFC Iberia 1999 Tbilisi2:0
  • awayFC Rustavi1:0
  • homeSpaeri FC3:0

FC Dinamo Tbilisi

  • awayFC Samgurali Tskaltubo3:2
  • homeFC Gagra4:0
  • homeFC Meshakhte Tkibuli0:0
  • awayFC Torpedo Kutaisi1:1
  • homeFC Dila Gori2:1

Head to head

  • 06/23/26Erovnuli Liga1:2
  • 05/02/26Erovnuli Liga2:2
  • 04/11/26Erovnuli Liga2:2
  • 10/18/25Erovnuli Liga1:1
  • 08/04/25Erovnuli Liga1:4

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
1FC Dinamo Batumi27138646:3647
2FC Iberia 1999 Tbilisi26144837:2846
3FC Rustavi27137732:2346
4FC Dinamo Tbilisi26129543:2945
5FC Dila Gori271241138:3040
6FC Torpedo Kutaisi2799943:3436

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.