All matches

FC Dila Gori — FC Iberia 1999 Tbilisi, Erovnuli Liga

Georgia, Erovnuli Liga

FC Dila Gori
2.8WLDWW
—
FC Iberia 1999 Tbilisi
3.1WWWLW
Outcome probability
362936
FC Dila Gori36%Draw29%FC Iberia 1999 Tbilisi36%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1FC Dila Gori36%2.81—
XDraw29%3.48—
2FC Iberia 1999 Tbilisi36%2.80—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes50%

ours 1.98

No50%

ours 2.02

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricFC Dila GoriFC Iberia 1999 TbilisiCombined
Goals scored1.830.832.66
Conceded1.000.171.17
Corners11.09.310.2
Cards1.64.05.6
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

  1. 1

    Signals

    Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.

    FC Dila GoriFC Iberia 1999 Tbilisi
    5Table position2
    9Days of rest3.8
    1Matches in 14 days2
    37.60%Possession54.30%
  2. 2

    Reading

    Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.

    Away from home, FC Iberia 1999 Tbilisi still look stronger — an away win is rated at 36%.

    Most likely scorelines:…

  3. 3

    Conclusion

    Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.

    Safe pick
    Risky pick

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

Total goals: Over 1.5

71%
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

FC Dila Gori

  • awaySpaeri FC4:1
  • awayFC Iberia 1999 Tbilisi1:2
  • homeFC Dinamo Batumi2:2
  • awayFC Samgurali Tskaltubo3:1
  • homeFC Gagra1:0

FC Iberia 1999 Tbilisi

  • awayFC Rustavi2:0
  • homeFC Dila Gori2:1
  • homeSpaeri FC1:0
  • awayFC Dinamo Batumi0:2
  • homeFC Samgurali Tskaltubo2:1

Head to head

  • 09/17/26Erovnuli Liga1:2
  • 05/06/26Erovnuli Liga0:1
  • 03/06/26Erovnuli Liga0:1
  • 10/26/25Erovnuli Liga1:2
  • 08/17/25Erovnuli Liga0:6

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
1FC Dinamo Batumi27138646:3647
2FC Iberia 1999 Tbilisi26144837:2846
3FC Rustavi27137732:2346
4FC Dinamo Tbilisi26129543:2945
5FC Dila Gori271241138:3040
6FC Torpedo Kutaisi2799943:3436
7FC Samgurali Tskaltubo27951338:5232

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.