FC Den Bosch — MVV, Eerste Divisie

Netherlands, Eerste DivisieOctober 23 at 06:00 PM

FC Den Bosch

1.6LWLLL

—

MVV

1.2WLLDW

Outcome probability

522226

FC Den Bosch52%Draw22%MVV26%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ

1FC Den Bosch52%1.91—

XDraw22%4.57—

2MVV26%3.87—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes53%

ours 1.90

No48%

ours 2.11

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricFC Den BoschMVVCombined

Goals scored0.330.500.83

Conceded0.671.672.34

Corners9.78.79.2

Cards2.01.03.0

Offsides

Throw-ins

Fouls

Shots

Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

1
Signals
Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.
FC Den BoschMVV
16Table position3
7Days of rest5.1
46.70%Possession58.70%
2Matches in 14 days2
2
Reading
Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.
FC Den Bosch look the favourite on home turf and current form — a home win is rated at 52%.
Most likely scorelines:…
3
Conclusion
Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.
Safe pick
Risky pick
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