All matches

FC Den Bosch — FC Oss, Eerste Divisie

Netherlands, Eerste Divisie

FC Den Bosch
1.6LWLLL
—
FC Oss
1.2LWLLW
Outcome probability
522226
FC Den Bosch52%Draw22%FC Oss26%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1FC Den Bosch52%1.92—
XDraw22%4.56—
2FC Oss26%3.83—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes53%

ours 1.90

No47%

ours 2.11

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricFC Den BoschFC OssCombined
Goals scored0.500.831.33
Conceded1.171.002.17
Corners11.010.510.8
Cards2.02.54.5
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

  1. 1

    Signals

    Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.

    FC Den BoschFC Oss
    16Table position20
    46.50%Possession37.30%
    7Days of rest7
    2Matches in 14 days2
  2. 2

    Reading

    Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.

    Home advantage and current form favour FC Den Bosch: a home win is rated at 52%.

    Most likely scorelines:…

  3. 3

    Conclusion

    Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.

    Safe pick
    Risky pick

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

Total corners: Over 10.5

70%
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

FC Den Bosch

  • awayBV De Graafschap0:1
  • homeHelmond Sport2:1
  • awayFC Volendam0:2
  • awayPSV Eindhoven II1:3
  • homeSBV Vitesse1:4

FC Oss

  • awayFC Emmen0:1
  • homeFC Dordrecht3:0
  • awayVVV Venlo1:3
  • awaySBV Vitesse1:2
  • homeFC Utrecht II2:1

Head to head

  • 04/17/26Eerste Divisie2:4
  • 08/24/25Eerste Divisie5:2
  • 01/24/25Eerste Divisie1:0
  • 11/08/24Eerste Divisie0:1

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
14Helmond Sport822413:148
15AFC Ajax II922513:228
16FC Den Bosch821512:177
17FC Utrecht II921615:217
18FC Dordrecht821512:237
19BV De Graafschap82159:207
20FC Oss82068:136

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.