FC Dallas — Columbus Crew, MLS

USA, MLSOctober 29 at 12:30 AM

FC Dallas

2.1WDWWW

—

Columbus Crew

1.9WWLLW

Outcome probability

512425

FC Dallas51%Draw24%Columbus Crew25%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ

1FC Dallas51%1.96—

XDraw24%4.14—

2Columbus Crew25%4.01—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes61%

ours 1.64

No39%

ours 2.57

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricFC DallasColumbus CrewCombined

Goals scored0.170.670.84

Conceded0.000.170.17

Corners9.08.08.5

Cards2.03.05.0

Offsides

Throw-ins

Fouls

Shots

Shots on target

The other six metrics — with a subscription

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

1
Signals
Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.
FC DallasColumbus Crew
3Table position25
3Matches in 14 days2
4Days of rest4.2
46.50%Possession44.50%
2
Reading
Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.
Home advantage and current form favour FC Dallas: a home win is rated at 51%.
Most likely scorelines:…
3
Conclusion
Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.
Safe pick
Risky pick
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