All matches

Corvinul — Voluntari, Liga I

Romania, Liga I

Corvinul
1.7WLLDD
—
Voluntari
1.7LLWDL
Outcome probability
562618
Corvinul56%Draw26%Voluntari18%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Corvinul56%56%1.781.78+0.1
XDraw26%26%3.883.90+0.2
2Voluntari18%23%5.544.30-5.2

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes45%

ours 2.23book 1.84

No55%

ours 1.81book 1.86

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricCorvinulVoluntariCombined
Goals scored1.171.002.17
Conceded1.001.832.83
Corners10.310.710.5
Cards2.82.55.3
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

  1. 1

    Signals

    Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.

    CorvinulVoluntari
    7Table position15
    46.30%Possession43.30%
    14Days of rest14
    0Matches in 14 days0
  2. 2

    Reading

    Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.

    Home advantage and current form favour FC Corvinul Hunedoara: a home win is rated at 56%. Bookmakers price this at 1.78.

    Most likely scorelines:…

  3. 3

    Conclusion

    Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.

    Safe pick
    Risky pick

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

Total goals: Under 3.5

71%1.31
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

Corvinul

  • awayOtelul Galati3:2
  • homeUniversitatea Craiova0:1
  • awayACS Petrolul 52 Ploiesti0:2
  • homeDinamo Bucharest1:1
  • awayUTA Arad0:0

Voluntari

  • homeU Cluj0:2
  • awayRapid Bucuresti1:2
  • homeArges Pitesti1:0
  • homeOtelul Galati2:2
  • awayUniversitatea Craiova1:3

Head to head

No head-to-head matches on record.

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
5U Cluj950414:1315
6Farul Constanta1035214:1414
7Corvinul1034311:913
8CFR Cluj941415:1413
9Sepsi OSK103437:1013
10UTA Arad1033414:1512
11FCSB1033413:1712
12Botosani1025314:1211
13Arges Pitesti103256:1011
14Otelul Galati1024411:1510
15Voluntari102269:228
16Csikszereda100196:231

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.