FC Cincinnati — Columbus Crew, MLS

USA, MLSOctober 18 at 09:00 PM

FC Cincinnati

2.5LDDLL

—

Columbus Crew

1.9WWLLW

Outcome probability

482428

FC Cincinnati48%Draw24%Columbus Crew28%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ

1FC Cincinnati48%2.10—

XDraw24%4.09—

2Columbus Crew28%3.58—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes67%

ours 1.48

No33%

ours 3.06

Over 2.5 goals

This market opens with a subscription.

See plans

Over 9.5 corners

This market opens with a subscription.

See plans

Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricFC CincinnatiColumbus CrewCombined

Goals scored1.000.831.83

Conceded2.170.672.84

Corners10.88.59.6

Cards1.52.54.0

Offsides

Throw-ins

Fouls

Shots

Shots on target

The other six metrics — with a subscription

Free full access for 3 days when you sign up

Start free Plans

Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

1
Signals
Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.
FC CincinnatiColumbus Crew
18Table position25
53.50%Possession55.00%
3.9Days of rest3.9
2Matches in 14 days2
2
Reading
Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.
FC Cincinnati look the favourite on home turf and current form — a home win is rated at 48%.
Most likely scorelines:…
3
Conclusion
Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.
Safe pick
Risky pick
The full analysis and both conclusions — with a subscription
Free full access for 3 days when you sign up
Start free Plans