All matches

FC Cajamarca — UCV Moquegua, Primera División

Peru, Primera División

FC Cajamarca
1.6LWLWL
—
UCV Moquegua
1.5LLLLW
Outcome probability
602318
FC Cajamarca60%Draw23%UCV Moquegua18%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1FC Cajamarca60%1.68—
XDraw23%4.36—
2UCV Moquegua18%5.70—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes53%

ours 1.88

No47%

ours 2.14

Over 2.5 goals

This market opens with a subscription.

See plans

Over 9.5 corners

This market opens with a subscription.

See plans

Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricFC CajamarcaUCV MoqueguaCombined
Goals scored1.500.672.17
Conceded2.172.004.17
Corners6.49.47.9
Cards2.22.44.6
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

The other six metrics — with a subscription

Free full access for 3 days when you sign up

Start freePlans

Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

  1. 1

    Signals

    Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.

    FC CajamarcaUCV Moquegua
    8Days of rest10
    46.40%Possession39.00%
    15Table position17
    1Matches in 14 days1
  2. 2

    Reading

    Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.

    FC Cajamarca look the favourite on home turf and current form — a home win is rated at 60%.

    Most likely scorelines:…

  3. 3

    Conclusion

    Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.

    Safe pick
    Risky pick

    The full analysis and both conclusions — with a subscription

    Free full access for 3 days when you sign up

    Start freePlans

More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

Second half total: Under 2.5

71%
High variancelow probability, high price

Two more scenarios — with a subscription

Free full access for 3 days when you sign up

Start freePlans

Form and context

FC Cajamarca

  • homeAsociación Civil Real Atlético Garcilaso1:2
  • awayLos Chankas2:1
  • homeClub Cienciano2:5
  • awayCD Comerciantes Unidos3:2
  • homeClub Atlético Grau1:3

UCV Moquegua

  • awayJuan Pablo II College0:4
  • homeClub Sporting Cristal SAC1:2
  • awayAsociación Civil Real Atlético Garcilaso0:2
  • homeClub Alianza Atlético Sullana1:4
  • awayCD Sport Huancayo2:0

Head to head

  • 04/25/26Primera División1:2

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
13Club Atlético Grau27951326:3132
14CD Comerciantes Unidos27791135:3830
15FC Cajamarca27761441:5227
16Asociación Deportiva Tarma27671429:4225
17UCV Moquegua27671424:4125
18CCyD Universidad Técnica de Cajamarca27481532:5020

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

Full breakdown, scenarios and analysis — with a subscription

Free full access for 3 days when you sign up

PlansSign in

Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.