All matches

Urartu — Ararat Yerevan, Armenian Premier League

Armenia, Armenian Premier League

Urartu
2.5WLLDW
—
Ararat Yerevan
0.7WWLLL
Outcome probability
81
Urartu81%Draw12%Ararat Yerevan7%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Urartu81%1.23—
XDraw12%8.66—
2Ararat Yerevan7%13.95—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes44%

ours 2.25

No56%

ours 1.80

Over 2.5 goals

This market opens with a subscription.

See plans

Over 9.5 corners

This market opens with a subscription.

See plans

Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricUrartuArarat YerevanCombined
Goals scored1.500.832.33
Conceded1.001.332.33
Corners9.36.88.1
Cards1.72.03.7
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

The other six metrics — with a subscription

Free full access for 3 days when you sign up

Start freePlans

Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

  1. 1

    Signals

    Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.

    UrartuArarat Yerevan
    58.00%Possession42.60%
    6Table position8
    14Days of rest14
    0Matches in 14 days0
  2. 2

    Reading

    Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.

    FC Banants look the favourite on home turf and current form — a home win is rated at 81%.

    Most likely scorelines:…

  3. 3

    Conclusion

    Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.

    Safe pick
    Risky pick

    The full analysis and both conclusions — with a subscription

    Free full access for 3 days when you sign up

    Start freePlans

More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

Second half total: Under 2.5

67%
High variancelow probability, high price

Two more scenarios — with a subscription

Free full access for 3 days when you sign up

Start freePlans

Form and context

Urartu

  • awayGandzasar Kapan3:0
  • homeArtsakh0:3
  • awayCSKA Yerevan1:2
  • homeAlashkert1:1
  • awayShirak1:0

Ararat Yerevan

  • awayGandzasar1:0
  • awayGandzasar Kapan2:0
  • homeAvan Academy0:1
  • awayArtsakh0:4
  • homePyunik0:2

Head to head

  • 05/10/26Armenian Premier League1:0
  • 11/03/25Armenian Premier League1:0
  • 09/19/25Armenian Premier League6:0
  • 05/24/25Armenian Premier League4:2
  • 10/26/24Armenian Premier League1:0

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
4Alashkert843118:615
5Sardarapat833214:1212
6Urartu832312:1011
7Shirak831411:1010
8Ararat Yerevan83056:139
9CSKA Yerevan82248:108
10Van81164:214

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

Full breakdown, scenarios and analysis — with a subscription

Free full access for 3 days when you sign up

PlansSign in

Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.