All matches

Avan Academy — Alashkert, Armenian Premier League

Armenia, Armenian Premier League

Avan Academy
3.3WLWWL
—
Alashkert
2.2DDWDW
Outcome probability
632017
Avan Academy63%Draw20%Alashkert17%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Avan Academy63%1.60—
XDraw20%4.99—
2Alashkert17%5.74—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes52%

ours 1.91

No48%

ours 2.10

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricAvan AcademyAlashkertCombined
Goals scored1.672.003.67
Conceded1.171.002.17
Corners9.010.79.8
Cards2.51.84.3
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

  1. 1

    Signals

    Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.

    Avan AcademyAlashkert
    2Table position4
    53.80%Possession56.30%
    14Days of rest14
    0Matches in 14 days0
  2. 2

    Reading

    Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.

    Home advantage and current form favour FC Avan Academy: a home win is rated at 63%.

    Most likely scorelines:…

  3. 3

    Conclusion

    Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.

    Safe pick
    Risky pick

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

Total goals: Under 3.5

71%
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

Avan Academy

  • awayShirak3:1
  • homeSparta Prague1:4
  • homeGandzasar3:0
  • awayArarat Yerevan1:0
  • awayPyunik1:2

Alashkert

  • homePyunik3:3
  • awaySardarapat1:1
  • homeVan4:0
  • awayUrartu1:1
  • homeGandzasar Kapan3:0

Head to head

  • 04/06/26Armenian Premier League1:1
  • 03/07/26Armenian Premier League0:1
  • 09/25/25Armenian Premier League2:1
  • 03/15/25Armenian Premier League3:0
  • 11/27/24Armenian Premier League2:2

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
1Artsakh880021:524
2Avan Academy861117:819
3Pyunik853018:818
4Alashkert843118:615
5Sardarapat833214:1212
6Urartu832312:1011

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.