FC Arouca — Estrela Amadora, Liga NOS

Portugal, Liga NOSOctober 11 at 07:30 PM

FC Arouca

1.8DLDWL

—

Estrela Amadora

1.2LDWDW

Outcome probability

542620

FC Arouca54%Draw26%Estrela Amadora20%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ

1FC Arouca54%1.85—

XDraw26%3.85—

2Estrela Amadora20%5.04—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes60%

ours 1.67

No40%

ours 2.49

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricFC AroucaEstrela AmadoraCombined

Goals scored1.502.003.50

Conceded1.172.003.17

Corners8.38.28.3

Cards2.32.54.8

Offsides

Throw-ins

Fouls

Shots

Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

1
Signals
Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.
FC AroucaEstrela Amadora
5Table position8
52.20%Possession50.30%
14Days of rest14
0Matches in 14 days0
2
Reading
Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.
Home advantage and current form favour FC Arouca: a home win is rated at 54%.
Most likely scorelines:…
3
Conclusion
Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.
Safe pick
Risky pick
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