FC Argeș Pitești — AFC UTA Arad, Liga I

Romania, Liga IOctober 24 at 12:00 AM

FC Argeș Pitești

1.9LDLLL

—

AFC UTA Arad

2.0WLWWD

Outcome probability

413228

FC Argeș Pitești41%Draw32%AFC UTA Arad28%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ

1FC Argeș Pitești41%2.46—

XDraw32%3.17—

2AFC UTA Arad28%3.59—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes33%

ours 3.00

No67%

ours 1.50

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricFC Argeș PiteștiAFC UTA AradCombined

Goals scored0.331.832.16

Conceded1.001.002.00

Corners10.59.810.1

Cards2.51.33.8

Offsides

Throw-ins

Fouls

Shots

Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

1
Signals
Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.
FC Argeș PiteștiAFC UTA Arad
13Table position10
47.00%Possession48.50%
7Days of rest7
2Matches in 14 days2
2
Reading
Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.
Home advantage and current form favour FC Argeș Pitești: a home win is rated at 41%.
Most likely scorelines:…
3
Conclusion
Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.
Safe pick
Risky pick
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