All matches

Falkirk FC — Kilmarnock FC, Premiership

Scotland, Premiership

Falkirk FC
1.7DWDLL
—
Kilmarnock FC
1.2DWDLL
Outcome probability
512424
Falkirk FC51%Draw24%Kilmarnock FC24%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Falkirk FC51%1.94—
XDraw24%4.09—
2Kilmarnock FC24%4.15—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes56%

ours 1.77

No44%

ours 2.29

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricFalkirk FCKilmarnock FCCombined
Goals scored0.830.331.16
Conceded0.830.331.16
Corners12.013.312.6
Cards2.02.04.0
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

  1. 1

    Signals

    Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.

    Falkirk FCKilmarnock FC
    45.80%Possession41.30%
    11Table position12
    7Days of rest7
    2Matches in 14 days2
  2. 2

    Reading

    Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.

    Home advantage and current form favour Falkirk FC: a home win is rated at 51%.

    Most likely scorelines:…

  3. 3

    Conclusion

    Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.

    Safe pick
    Risky pick

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

Total corners: Over 7.5

70%
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

Falkirk FC

  • awaySaint Johnstone FC1:1
  • homeHeart of Midlothian FC2:1
  • awayDundee United FC1:1
  • homeRangers FC1:2
  • awayCeltic FC1:2

Kilmarnock FC

  • homeHeart of Midlothian FC1:1
  • awayHibernian FC1:0
  • awayAberdeen FC0:0
  • homeSaint Mirren FC0:1
  • homeDundee United FC0:4

Head to head

  • 02/28/26Premiership5:1
  • 12/20/25Premiership1:0
  • 11/01/25Premiership3:1

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
9Motherwell FC72239:118
10Hibernian FC72148:117
11Falkirk FC71336:96
12Kilmarnock FC71246:155

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.