All matches

FA Šiauliai — FK Trakai, A Lyga

Lithuania, A Lyga

FA Šiauliai
1.1LDLLL
—
FK Trakai
0.6LLLLL
Outcome probability
532621
FA Šiauliai53%Draw26%FK Trakai21%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1FA Šiauliai53%1.87—
XDraw26%3.87—
2FK Trakai21%4.81—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes48%

ours 2.07

No52%

ours 1.94

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricFA ŠiauliaiFK TrakaiCombined
Goals scored0.330.000.33
Conceded1.330.001.33
Corners12.5——
Cards1.7——
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

  1. 1

    Signals

    Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.

    FA ŠiauliaiFK Trakai
    9Table position10
    14Days of rest14
    0Matches in 14 days0
  2. 2

    Reading

    Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.

    FA Šiauliai look the favourite on home turf and current form — a home win is rated at 53%.

    Most likely scorelines:…

  3. 3

    Conclusion

    Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.

    Safe pick
    Risky pick

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

Total goals: Under 3.5

72%
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

FA Šiauliai

  • homeFK Kauno Žalgiris0:2
  • homeFC Hegelmann Litauen Kaunas0:0
  • awayVMFD Žalgiris Vilnius0:1
  • homeFK Sūduva Marijampolė1:2
  • awayFK TransINVEST Vilnius0:3

FK Trakai

  • awayVMFD Žalgiris Vilnius2:3
  • homeFK Sūduva Marijampolė0:3
  • awayFA Šiauliai0:2
  • awayFK Džiugas Telšiai0:1
  • homeFK Banga Gargždai0:4

Head to head

  • 05/25/26A Lyga2:0
  • 03/20/26A Lyga1:1
  • 09/27/25A Lyga2:1
  • 07/11/25A Lyga2:0
  • 06/19/25A Lyga0:1

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
7FK Panevėžys291051431:4435
8FC Hegelmann Litauen Kaunas304151131:4827
9FA Šiauliai31491827:5921
10FK Trakai1603135:423

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.