Everton FC — Chelsea FC, Premier League

England, Premier LeagueOctober 17 at 11:30 AM

Everton FC

2.1WDDDW

—

Chelsea FC

2.8LDLWW

Outcome probability

392932

Everton FC39%Draw29%Chelsea FC32%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ

1Everton FC39%2.56—

XDraw29%3.43—

2Chelsea FC32%3.14—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes53%

ours 1.90

No47%

ours 2.11

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricEverton FCChelsea FCCombined

Goals scored1.001.672.67

Conceded0.502.002.50

Corners9.411.810.6

Cards1.81.83.6

Offsides

Throw-ins

Fouls

Shots

Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

1
Signals
Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.
Everton FCChelsea FC
7Table position10
5.9Days of rest6.9
43.60%Possession47.40%
1Matches in 14 days1
2
Reading
Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.
Everton FC look the favourite on home turf and current form — a home win is rated at 39%.
Most likely scorelines:…
3
Conclusion
Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.
Safe pick
Risky pick
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