Estudiantes de Río Cuarto — Racing Club de Avellaneda, Primera División

Argentina, Primera División12:30 AM

Estudiantes de Río Cuarto

1.1LLDDL

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Racing Club de Avellaneda

2.1WLLLD

Outcome probability

202951

Estudiantes de Río Cuarto20%Draw29%Racing Club de Avellaneda51%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ

1Estudiantes de Río Cuarto20%25%5.004.00-5.0

XDraw29%33%3.423.03-3.7

2Racing Club de Avellaneda51%47%1.972.11+3.4

Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricEstudiantes de Río CuartoRacing Club de AvellanedaCombined

Goals scored0.331.171.50

Conceded1.001.672.67

Corners9.67.38.5

Cards2.42.04.4

Offsides

Throw-ins

Fouls

Shots

Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

1
Signals
Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.
Estudiantes de Río CuartoRacing Club de Avellaneda
30Table position22
55.20%Possession64.70%
14Days of rest14
0Matches in 14 days0
2
Reading
Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.
Racing Club de Avellaneda travel as favourites: despite playing away, a win is rated at 51%. Bookmakers price this at 2.11.
Most likely scorelines:…
3
Conclusion
Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.
Safe pick
Risky pick
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