Estudiantes de Río Cuarto — CA Aldosivi, Primera División

Argentina, Primera DivisiónOctober 18 at 12:00 AM

Estudiantes de Río Cuarto

1.1LLDDL

—

CA Aldosivi

0.7WLWLL

Outcome probability

353233

Estudiantes de Río Cuarto35%Draw32%CA Aldosivi33%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ

1Estudiantes de Río Cuarto35%2.86—

XDraw32%3.16—

2CA Aldosivi33%3.00—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes35%

ours 2.86

No65%

ours 1.54

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricEstudiantes de Río CuartoCA AldosiviCombined

Goals scored0.331.331.66

Conceded0.831.172.00

Corners12.011.511.8

Cards2.72.85.4

Offsides

Throw-ins

Fouls

Shots

Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

1
Signals
Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.
Estudiantes de Río CuartoCA Aldosivi
56.30%Possession46.70%
30Table position29
7Days of rest7
2Matches in 14 days2
2
Reading
Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.
Home advantage and current form favour Estudiantes de Río Cuarto: a home win is rated at 35%.
Most likely scorelines:…
3
Conclusion
Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.
Safe pick
Risky pick
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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price

Basebalance of probability and price

Second half total: Under 1.5

70%

High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context