All matches

Estudiantes de La Plata — Gimnasia Mendoza, Primera División

Argentina, Primera División

Estudiantes de La Plata
2.3LWLDL
—
Gimnasia Mendoza
1.9DLDWW
Outcome probability
482924
Estudiantes de La Plata48%Draw29%Gimnasia Mendoza24%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Estudiantes de La Plata48%58%2.091.73-10.1
XDraw29%28%3.493.55+0.5
2Gimnasia Mendoza24%19%4.255.20+4.3

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes46%

ours 2.19book 2.05

No54%

ours 1.84book 1.69

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricEstudiantes de La PlataGimnasia MendozaCombined
Goals scored1.171.833.00
Conceded1.001.172.17
Corners7.09.38.2
Cards3.02.35.3
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

  1. 1

    Signals

    Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.

    Estudiantes de La PlataGimnasia Mendoza
    1Matches in 14 days0
    9Table position16
    64.70%Possession52.50%
    13.9Days of rest14
  2. 2

    Reading

    Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.

    Estudiantes de La Plata look the favourite on home turf and current form — a home win is rated at 48%. Bookmakers price this at 1.73.

    Most likely scorelines:…

  3. 3

    Conclusion

    Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.

    Safe pick
    Risky pick

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

Total goals: Over 1.5

71%1.35
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

Estudiantes de La Plata

  • awayCA Lanús1:2
  • homePlatense2:1
  • awayClub Atlético Vélez Sarsfield0:1
  • homeNewell's Old Boys0:0
  • awayCA Sarmiento0:2

Gimnasia Mendoza

  • homeRiestra0:0
  • awayCSD Defensa y Justicia0:2
  • homeCA Boca Juniors2:2
  • awayCA Independiente3:0
  • awayGimnasia y Esgrima La Plata3:2

Head to head

  • 03/18/26Primera División2:1

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
7CA Boca Juniors271211438:2347
8Gimnasia y Esgrima La Plata281441035:3646
9Estudiantes de La Plata271251029:1941
10CA Huracán281011730:2441
11CA Independiente27118835:3141
12Instituto Córdoba25124928:2340
13CA Unión de Santa Fe281071143:3937
14CA Lanús26107928:2637
15CSD Defensa y Justicia26910731:3237
16Gimnasia Mendoza261061028:3136
17CA Sarmiento261121330:3635
18CA Talleres de Córdoba27971128:3134

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.