Estrela Amadora — Casa Pia AC, Liga NOS

Portugal, Liga NOSOctober 24 at 02:30 PM

Estrela Amadora

1.2LDWDW

—

Casa Pia AC

1.3WLDLL

Outcome probability

492923

Estrela Amadora49%Draw29%Casa Pia AC23%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ

1Estrela Amadora49%2.06—

XDraw29%3.50—

2Casa Pia AC23%4.38—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes50%

ours 2.00

No50%

ours 2.01

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricEstrela AmadoraCasa Pia ACCombined

Goals scored1.670.502.17

Conceded1.671.333.00

Corners9.412.010.7

Cards2.22.04.2

Offsides

Throw-ins

Fouls

Shots

Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

1
Signals
Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.
Estrela AmadoraCasa Pia AC
8Table position17
49.60%Possession43.20%
12.8Days of rest14
1Matches in 14 days1
2
Reading
Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.
Home advantage and current form favour Estrela Amadora: a home win is rated at 49%.
Most likely scorelines:…
3
Conclusion
Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.
Safe pick
Risky pick
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