All matches

Espérance Sportive Troyes Aube Champagne — Olympique de Marseille, Ligue 1

France, Ligue 1

Espérance Sportive Troyes Aube Champagne
1.8LLLWD
—
Olympique de Marseille
2.3LLLLL
Outcome probability
302545
Espérance Sportive Troyes Aube Champagne30%Draw25%Olympique de Marseille45%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Espérance Sportive Troyes Aube Champagne30%3.30—
XDraw25%4.02—
2Olympique de Marseille45%2.23—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes60%

ours 1.66

No40%

ours 2.51

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricEspérance Sportive Troyes Aube ChampagneOlympique de MarseilleCombined
Goals scored0.801.332.13
Conceded2.202.004.20
Corners9.28.78.9
Cards1.01.52.5
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

  1. 1

    Signals

    Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.

    Espérance Sportive Troyes Aube ChampagneOlympique de Marseille
    39.20%Possession54.50%
    16Table position17
    14Days of rest14
    0Matches in 14 days0
  2. 2

    Reading

    Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.

    Away from home, Olympique de Marseille still look stronger — an away win is rated at 45%.

    Most likely scorelines:…

  3. 3

    Conclusion

    Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.

    Safe pick
    Risky pick

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

Goal in both halves: Yes

71%
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

Espérance Sportive Troyes Aube Champagne

  • awayAngers Sporting Club de l'Ouest0:2
  • awayLille OSC Métropole0:2
  • homeRC Strasbourg Alsace2:6
  • awayFC Lorient2:1
  • homeParis FC0:0

Olympique de Marseille

  • homeParis Saint-Germain FC1:2
  • awayBeşiktaş1:4
  • awayStade Rennais FC0:1
  • homeParis FC2:3
  • awayAS Monaco FC0:2

Head to head

No head-to-head matches on record.

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
14OGC Nice Côte d'Azur51223:65
15Racing Club de Lens51139:94
16Espérance Sportive Troyes Aube Champagne51134:114
17Olympique de Marseille51047:83
18Le Havre AC50234:72

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.