All matches

EC Bahia — CR Flamengo, Serie A

Brazil, Serie A

EC Bahia
2.4LWWWW
—
CR Flamengo
3.6WWWWW
Outcome probability
272845
EC Bahia27%Draw28%CR Flamengo45%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1EC Bahia27%3.66—
XDraw28%3.56—
2CR Flamengo45%2.24—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes53%

ours 1.87

No47%

ours 2.15

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricEC BahiaCR FlamengoCombined
Goals scored1.501.172.67
Conceded1.170.331.50
Corners11.514.813.1
Cards2.82.35.0
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

  1. 1

    Signals

    Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.

    EC BahiaCR Flamengo
    5Table position1
    54.50%Possession62.50%
    7Days of rest7
    2Matches in 14 days2
  2. 2

    Reading

    Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.

    Away from home, CR Flamengo still look stronger — an away win is rated at 45%.

    Most likely scorelines:…

  3. 3

    Conclusion

    Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.

    Safe pick
    Risky pick

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

Total goals: Under 3.5

71%
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

EC Bahia

  • awayCA Paranaense1:2
  • homeClube do Remo2:1
  • awayClube Atlético Bragantino3:2
  • homeSC Internacional3:2
  • awayEC Vitória2:0

CR Flamengo

  • homeClube Atlético Bragantino2:1
  • homeSC Corinthians Paulista2:1
  • awayClube do Remo1:0
  • homeMirassol Futebol Clube2:0
  • homeBotafogo FR3:0

Head to head

  • 04/19/26Serie A0:2
  • 10/05/25Serie A1:0
  • 05/11/25Serie A0:1
  • 10/05/24Serie A0:2
  • 06/20/24Serie A1:2

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
1CR Flamengo28186455:2360
2SE Palmeiras28169347:2157
3CA Paranaense28147743:3249
4Fluminense FC28139644:3648
5EC Bahia281210643:3546
6Cruzeiro EC28136942:4045
7CA Mineiro27117936:3240

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.