All matches

Drogheda United FC — Derry City FC, Premier Division

Republic of Ireland, Premier Division

Drogheda United FC
1.5LWWLL
—
Derry City FC
2.1WDWDL
Outcome probability
283141
Drogheda United FC28%Draw31%Derry City FC41%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Drogheda United FC28%3.59—
XDraw31%3.20—
2Derry City FC41%2.44—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes49%

ours 2.02

No51%

ours 1.98

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricDrogheda United FCDerry City FCCombined
Goals scored1.172.003.17
Conceded1.331.673.00
Corners10.210.310.3
Cards1.02.23.2
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

  1. 1

    Signals

    Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.

    Drogheda United FCDerry City FC
    1Matches in 14 days0
    9Table position4
    8Days of rest14
    37.00%Possession54.00%
  2. 2

    Reading

    Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.

    Derry City FC travel as favourites: despite playing away, a win is rated at 41%.

    Most likely scorelines:…

  3. 3

    Conclusion

    Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.

    Safe pick
    Risky pick

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

Total goals: Over 1.5

71%
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

Drogheda United FC

  • awayBohemian FC1:2
  • awayShelbourne FC2:1
  • homeSligo Rovers FC2:0
  • homeDundalk FC2:3
  • homeSt Patrick's Athletic FC0:2

Derry City FC

  • homeGalway United FC1:0
  • awayWaterford FC2:2
  • awayShelbourne FC1:0
  • homeShamrock Rovers FC3:3
  • awayBohemian FC3:5

Head to head

  • 06/26/26Premier Division0:2
  • 05/08/26Premier Division1:0
  • 03/20/26Premier Division2:2
  • 09/26/25Premier Division1:1
  • 06/27/25Premier Division0:3

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
2Shamrock Rovers FC31178649:3159
3Bohemian FC31168755:3756
4Derry City FC32914945:4241
5Dundalk FC3210111149:5341
6Shelbourne FC329131042:4540
7Galway United FC329111242:4838
8Waterford FC327131244:5434
9Drogheda United FC328101438:5134
10Sligo Rovers FC32581924:5423

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.