All matches

Derry City FC — Dundalk FC, Premier Division

Republic of Ireland, Premier Division

Derry City FC
2.1WDWDL
—
Dundalk FC
1.3LLDWL
Outcome probability
562718
Derry City FC56%Draw27%Dundalk FC18%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Derry City FC56%1.80—
XDraw27%3.77—
2Dundalk FC18%5.62—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes54%

ours 1.84

No46%

ours 2.18

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricDerry City FCDundalk FCCombined
Goals scored1.171.002.17
Conceded0.831.672.50
Corners9.87.38.5
Cards2.52.55.0
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

  1. 1

    Signals

    Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.

    Derry City FCDundalk FC
    2Matches in 14 days1
    4Days of rest6
    4Table position5
    55.80%Possession53.80%
  2. 2

    Reading

    Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.

    Derry City FC look the favourite on home turf and current form — a home win is rated at 56%.

    Most likely scorelines:…

  3. 3

    Conclusion

    Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.

    Safe pick
    Risky pick

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

Total cards: Under 6.5

72%
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

Derry City FC

  • homeGalway United FC1:0
  • awayWaterford FC2:2
  • awayShelbourne FC1:0
  • homeShamrock Rovers FC3:3
  • awayBohemian FC3:5

Dundalk FC

  • homeShelbourne FC2:3
  • homeSt Patrick's Athletic FC0:4
  • awayWaterford FC1:1
  • awayDrogheda United FC3:2
  • homeGalway United FC1:2

Head to head

  • 05/29/26Premier Division1:2
  • 04/10/26Premier Division2:2
  • 02/13/26Premier Division2:2
  • 10/18/24Premier Division2:0
  • 08/09/24Premier Division1:1

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
2Shamrock Rovers FC31178649:3159
3Bohemian FC31168755:3756
4Derry City FC32914945:4241
5Dundalk FC3210111149:5341
6Shelbourne FC329131042:4540
7Galway United FC329111242:4838

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.