Deportivo Toluca FC — Club Tijuana Xoloitzcuintles de Caliente, Liga MX

Mexico, Liga MXOctober 22 at 01:00 AM

Deportivo Toluca FC

3.1DLWWW

—

Club Tijuana Xoloitzcuintles de Caliente

2.2LDLWL

Outcome probability

632116

Deportivo Toluca FC63%Draw21%Club Tijuana Xoloitzcuintles de Caliente16%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ

1Deportivo Toluca FC63%1.58—

XDraw21%4.81—

2Club Tijuana Xoloitzcuintles de Caliente16%6.33—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes56%

ours 1.80

No44%

ours 2.25

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricDeportivo Toluca FCClub Tijuana Xoloitzcuintles de CalienteCombined

Goals scored1.831.002.83

Conceded1.331.002.33

Corners11.813.012.4

Cards1.01.52.5

Offsides

Throw-ins

Fouls

Shots

Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

1
Signals
Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.
Deportivo Toluca FCClub Tijuana Xoloitzcuintles de Caliente
1Table position8
4Days of rest4.9
51.80%Possession48.00%
2Matches in 14 days2
2
Reading
Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.
Home advantage and current form favour Deportivo Toluca FC: a home win is rated at 63%.
Most likely scorelines:…
3
Conclusion
Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.
Safe pick
Risky pick
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