All matches

Deportivo Toluca FC — Atlético San Luis, Liga MX

Mexico, Liga MX

Deportivo Toluca FC
3.1DLWWW
—
Atlético San Luis
1.3WWLLW
Outcome probability
7117
Deportivo Toluca FC71%Draw17%Atlético San Luis11%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Deportivo Toluca FC71%1.40—
XDraw17%5.83—
2Atlético San Luis11%8.73—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes55%

ours 1.82

No45%

ours 2.21

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricDeportivo Toluca FCAtlético San LuisCombined
Goals scored2.501.504.00
Conceded1.331.502.83
Corners11.09.610.3
Cards1.01.62.6
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

  1. 1

    Signals

    Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.

    Deportivo Toluca FCAtlético San Luis
    1Table position13
    7.9Days of rest6.1
    54.40%Possession48.40%
    1Matches in 14 days1
  2. 2

    Reading

    Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.

    Home advantage and current form favour Deportivo Toluca FC: a home win is rated at 71%.

    Most likely scorelines:…

  3. 3

    Conclusion

    Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.

    Safe pick
    Risky pick

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

Match result: Home

71%
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

Deportivo Toluca FC

  • awayCruz Azul FC3:3
  • homeClub Santos Laguna2:3
  • awayPuebla FC1:0
  • homeCSyD Atlas de Guadalajara5:2
  • homeFC Juárez4:0

Atlético San Luis

  • awayClub Universidad Nacional3:2
  • homeClub Necaxa3:1
  • awayClub León0:2
  • homeCD Guadalajara0:3
  • awayCF Monterrey3:1

Head to head

  • 04/13/26Liga MX1:1
  • 08/30/25Liga MX3:1
  • 04/17/25Liga MX1:0
  • 08/25/24Liga MX2:1

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
1Deportivo Toluca FC1062223:1220
2Club América962121:1020
3CD Guadalajara1053217:1018
4Querétaro FC952213:817
5Club León1052314:1117
6CSyD Atlas de Guadalajara1052316:1717
7Cruz Azul FC1051419:1816
8Club Tijuana Xoloitzcuintles de Caliente942314:1314
9Puebla FC1042411:1214
10CF Monterrey941416:1413
11CF Pachuca1033415:1112
12Club Universidad Nacional1033414:1612
13Atlético San Luis1033414:1812
14Club Atlante1025312:1511
15Tigres UANL1024410:1310

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.