All matches

Deportivo Independiente Medellín — Millonarios FC SA, Categoria Primera A

Colombia, Categoria Primera A

Deportivo Independiente Medellín
2.7LWDLW
—
Millonarios FC SA
2.6DWWDD
Outcome probability
452926
Deportivo Independiente Medellín45%Draw29%Millonarios FC SA26%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Deportivo Independiente Medellín45%45%2.242.21-0.6
XDraw29%27%3.433.65+1.7
2Millonarios FC SA26%32%3.813.10-6.1

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes53%

ours 1.90book 1.71

No47%

ours 2.11book 2.02

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricDeportivo Independiente MedellínMillonarios FC SACombined
Goals scored1.671.673.34
Conceded1.331.172.50
Corners7.79.88.8
Cards3.22.55.7
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

  1. 1

    Signals

    Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.

    Deportivo Independiente MedellínMillonarios FC SA
    3Days of rest5
    3Matches in 14 days2
    9Table position7
    53.70%Possession51.80%
  2. 2

    Reading

    Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.

    Deportivo Independiente Medellín look the favourite on home turf and current form — a home win is rated at 45%. Bookmakers price this at 2.21.

    Most likely scorelines:…

  3. 3

    Conclusion

    Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.

    Safe pick
    Risky pick

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

Second half total: Over 0.5

72%1.24
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

Deportivo Independiente Medellín

  • awayCD Popular Junior FC SA0:2
  • homeJaguares de Córdoba FC2:1
  • awayCA Bucaramanga2:2
  • awayDeportivo Boyacá Chicó FC SA1:2
  • awayCS Deportiva y Cultural de Pereira3:0

Millonarios FC SA

  • awayClub Atlético Nacional SA1:1
  • homeDeportivo Boyacá Chicó FC SA3:0
  • awayCorporación Nuevo Cúcuta Deportivo2:1
  • homeAsociación Deportivo Cali1:1
  • awayCS Deportiva y Cultural de Pereira1:1

Head to head

  • 02/02/26Categoria Primera A0:0
  • 08/03/25Categoria Primera A1:0
  • 02/16/25Categoria Primera A1:0
  • 07/19/24Categoria Primera A1:1
  • 01/21/24Categoria Primera A0:5

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
5CD Popular Junior FC SA341581152:4253
6Asociación Deportivo Cali30139837:2448
7Millonarios FC SA311210947:3246
8Once Caldas SA321113847:4046
9Deportivo Independiente Medellín291361043:3745
10CA Bucaramanga291013643:2943
11AD Pasto321261438:4642

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.