All matches

Deportivo Independiente Medellín — Independiente Santa Fe SA, Categoria Primera A

Colombia, Categoria Primera A

Deportivo Independiente Medellín
2.7LWDLW
—
Independiente Santa Fe SA
2.8LWWDW
Outcome probability
452926
Deportivo Independiente Medellín45%Draw29%Independiente Santa Fe SA26%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Deportivo Independiente Medellín45%51%2.231.95-6.5
XDraw29%30%3.423.28-1.2
2Independiente Santa Fe SA26%26%3.853.82-0.2

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes51%

ours 1.97book 1.79

No49%

ours 2.03book 1.92

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricDeportivo Independiente MedellínIndependiente Santa Fe SACombined
Goals scored1.331.673.00
Conceded1.171.002.17
Corners7.811.29.5
Cards3.02.05.0
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

  1. 1

    Signals

    Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.

    Deportivo Independiente MedellínIndependiente Santa Fe SA
    9Table position5
    3Matches in 14 days2
    54.40%Possession49.00%
    6Days of rest6.1
  2. 2

    Reading

    Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.

    Deportivo Independiente Medellín look the favourite on home turf and current form — a home win is rated at 45%. Bookmakers price this at 1.95.

    Most likely scorelines:…

  3. 3

    Conclusion

    Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.

    Safe pick
    Risky pick

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

First half total: Under 1.5

68%
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

Deportivo Independiente Medellín

  • awayCD Popular Junior FC SA0:2
  • homeJaguares de Córdoba FC2:1
  • awayCA Bucaramanga2:2
  • awayDeportivo Boyacá Chicó FC SA1:2
  • awayCS Deportiva y Cultural de Pereira3:0

Independiente Santa Fe SA

  • homeAsociación Deportivo Cali0:1
  • awayAlianza Valledupar FC4:1
  • homeClub Deportes Tolima SA1:0
  • homeFortaleza CEIF FC2:2
  • homeMillonarios FC SA3:2

Head to head

  • 03/23/26Categoria Primera A1:2
  • 10/21/25Categoria Primera A1:1
  • 06/29/25Categoria Primera A1:2
  • 06/25/25Categoria Primera A0:0
  • 04/15/25Categoria Primera A2:1

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
3Club Deportes Tolima SA341510946:3455
4CD Popular Junior FC SA341581152:4253
5Independiente Santa Fe SA331215651:3551
6Asociación Deportivo Cali30139837:2448
7Millonarios FC SA311210947:3246
8Once Caldas SA321113847:4046
9Deportivo Independiente Medellín291361043:3745
10CA Bucaramanga291013643:2943
11AD Pasto321261438:4642

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.