Deportivo Alavés — Málaga CF, La Liga

Spain, La LigaOctober 23 at 07:00 PM

Deportivo Alavés

1.7DLLWW

—

Málaga CF

2.2LLDDL

Outcome probability

522721

Deportivo Alavés52%Draw27%Málaga CF21%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ

1Deportivo Alavés52%1.92—

XDraw27%3.68—

2Málaga CF21%4.80—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes33%

ours 3.03

No67%

ours 1.49

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricDeportivo AlavésMálaga CFCombined

Goals scored1.000.331.33

Conceded0.830.831.66

Corners7.010.58.8

Cards1.33.04.3

Offsides

Throw-ins

Fouls

Shots

Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

1
Signals
Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.
Deportivo AlavésMálaga CF
6Table position20
42.00%Possession52.50%
5.2Days of rest5.1
2Matches in 14 days2
2
Reading
Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.
Deportivo Alavés look the favourite on home turf and current form — a home win is rated at 52%.
Most likely scorelines:…
3
Conclusion
Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.
Safe pick
Risky pick
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