All matches

Degerfors — Västerås SK Fotboll, Allsvenskan

Sweden, Allsvenskan

Degerfors
1.3LWLLW
—
Västerås SK Fotboll
1.5WWLWD
Outcome probability
312545
Degerfors31%Draw25%Västerås SK Fotboll45%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Degerfors31%3.25—
XDraw25%4.05—
2Västerås SK Fotboll45%2.25—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes47%

ours 2.14

No53%

ours 1.88

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricDegerforsVästerås SK FotbollCombined
Goals scored0.331.001.33
Conceded0.170.330.50
Corners11.09.310.2
Cards2.01.33.3
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

  1. 1

    Signals

    Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.

    DegerforsVästerås SK Fotboll
    13Table position6
    65.70%Possession37.80%
    4.2Days of rest5
    2Matches in 14 days2
  2. 2

    Reading

    Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.

    Away from home, Västerås SK Fotboll still look stronger — an away win is rated at 45%.

    Most likely scorelines:…

  3. 3

    Conclusion

    Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.

    Safe pick
    Risky pick

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

Total corners: Under 11.5

72%
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

Degerfors

  • homeHammarby IF0:1
  • homeHalmstads BK2:0
  • awayIF Elfsborg0:2
  • awayIF Brommapojkarna0:2
  • homeIFK Göteborg3:0

Västerås SK Fotboll

  • homeMalmö FF2:0
  • awayAIK Fotboll4:1
  • homeIK Sirius Fotboll0:1
  • awayBK Häcken3:1
  • homeKalmar FF0:0

Head to head

  • 07/12/26Allsvenskan0:2

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
4IF Elfsborg22107531:2237
5BK Häcken2299439:3036
6Västerås SK Fotboll22105734:3535
7Malmö FF22103937:3333
8AIK Fotboll2195730:3332
9IFK Göteborg2295831:4132
10GAIS2186728:1830
11IF Brommapojkarna2276930:3627
12Mjällby AIF21561026:3721
13Degerfors21541219:3219
14Kalmar FF22541321:3619
15Örgryte IS22361325:4915

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.