All matches

Degerfors — Kalmar FF, Allsvenskan

Sweden, Allsvenskan

Degerfors
1.3LWLLW
—
Kalmar FF
1.2LLLLD
Outcome probability
422532
Degerfors42%Draw25%Kalmar FF32%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Degerfors42%2.37—
XDraw25%3.95—
2Kalmar FF32%3.08—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes43%

ours 2.35

No57%

ours 1.74

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricDegerforsKalmar FFCombined
Goals scored0.330.000.33
Conceded0.831.332.16
Corners10.310.010.1
Cards1.80.82.5
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

  1. 1

    Signals

    Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.

    DegerforsKalmar FF
    9.1Days of rest7
    13Table position14
    62.70%Possession60.50%
    1Matches in 14 days1
  2. 2

    Reading

    Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.

    Home advantage and current form favour Degerfors: a home win is rated at 42%.

    Most likely scorelines:…

  3. 3

    Conclusion

    Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.

    Safe pick
    Risky pick

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

Total corners: Under 11.5

71%
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

Degerfors

  • homeHammarby IF0:1
  • homeHalmstads BK2:0
  • awayIF Elfsborg0:2
  • awayIF Brommapojkarna0:2
  • homeIFK Göteborg3:0

Kalmar FF

  • homeBK Häcken0:5
  • awayIF Elfsborg0:1
  • homeDjurgårdens IF0:1
  • awayHalmstads BK0:1
  • awayVästerås SK Fotboll0:0

Head to head

  • 05/23/26Allsvenskan1:2

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
11IF Brommapojkarna2276930:3627
12Mjällby AIF21561026:3721
13Degerfors21541219:3219
14Kalmar FF22541321:3619
15Örgryte IS22361325:4915
16Halmstads BK22351416:4014

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.