DC United — FC Cincinnati, MLS

USA, MLSOctober 24 at 11:30 PM

DC United

1.1DLDWD

—

FC Cincinnati

2.5LDDLL

Outcome probability

332542

DC United33%Draw25%FC Cincinnati42%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ

1DC United33%3.03—

XDraw25%3.98—

2FC Cincinnati42%2.39—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes69%

ours 1.45

No31%

ours 3.22

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricDC UnitedFC CincinnatiCombined

Goals scored0.670.501.17

Conceded0.830.831.66

Corners12.010.011.0

Cards1.51.02.5

Offsides

Throw-ins

Fouls

Shots

Shots on target

The other six metrics — with a subscription

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

1
Signals
Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.
DC UnitedFC Cincinnati
40.00%Possession56.00%
24Table position18
3Days of rest3
4Matches in 14 days4
2
Reading
Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.
Away from home, FC Cincinnati still look stronger — an away win is rated at 42%.
Most likely scorelines:…
3
Conclusion
Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.
Safe pick
Risky pick
The full analysis and both conclusions — with a subscription
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