Cyprus — Latvia, UEFA Nations League

International, UEFA Nations League04:00 PM

Cyprus

1.5DLLWD

—

Latvia

1.7DLWWL

Outcome probability

7218

Cyprus72%Draw18%Latvia10%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ

1Cyprus72%1.39—

XDraw18%5.59—

2Latvia10%10.01—

Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricCyprusLatviaCombined

Goals scored1.170.501.67

Conceded1.000.671.67

Corners9.612.411.0

Cards2.81.64.4

Offsides

Throw-ins

Fouls

Shots

Shots on target

The other six metrics — with a subscription

Free full access for 3 days when you sign up

Start free Plans

Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

1
Signals
Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.
CyprusLatvia
55.00%Possession46.00%
36Table position39
3Days of rest3
3Matches in 14 days3
2
Reading
Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.
Home advantage and current form favour Cyprus: a home win is rated at 72%.
Most likely scorelines:…
3
Conclusion
Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.
Safe pick
Risky pick
The full analysis and both conclusions — with a subscription
Free full access for 3 days when you sign up
Start free Plans