All matches

CSyD Atlas de Guadalajara — Club América, Liga MX

Mexico, Liga MX

CSyD Atlas de Guadalajara
1.7WDLDL
—
Club América
2.8WDLWW
Outcome probability
282646
CSyD Atlas de Guadalajara28%Draw26%Club América46%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1CSyD Atlas de Guadalajara28%3.60—
XDraw26%3.80—
2Club América46%2.18—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes55%

ours 1.82

No45%

ours 2.23

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricCSyD Atlas de GuadalajaraClub AméricaCombined
Goals scored1.171.833.00
Conceded1.501.332.83
Corners12.011.011.5
Cards1.81.33.0
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

  1. 1

    Signals

    Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.

    CSyD Atlas de GuadalajaraClub América
    6Table position2
    5Days of rest4
    58.00%Possession53.00%
    2Matches in 14 days2
  2. 2

    Reading

    Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.

    Club América travel as favourites: despite playing away, a win is rated at 46%.

    Most likely scorelines:…

  3. 3

    Conclusion

    Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.

    Safe pick
    Risky pick

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

Total corners: Under 11.5

71%
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

CSyD Atlas de Guadalajara

  • awayClub Tijuana Xoloitzcuintles de Caliente3:2
  • homeClub Universidad Nacional1:1
  • awayDeportivo Toluca FC2:5
  • homeClub Atlante1:1
  • homeQuerétaro FC1:3

Club América

  • awayClub Necaxa4:2
  • homeCD Guadalajara2:2
  • awayCruz Azul FC3:4
  • homePuebla FC2:0
  • awayFC Juárez2:1

Head to head

  • 04/26/26Liga MX1:0
  • 08/25/25Liga MX2:4
  • 03/16/25Liga MX1:3
  • 09/18/24Liga MX0:3

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
1Deportivo Toluca FC1062223:1220
2Club América962121:1020
3CD Guadalajara1053217:1018
4Querétaro FC952213:817
5Club León1052314:1117
6CSyD Atlas de Guadalajara1052316:1717
7Cruz Azul FC1051419:1816
8Club Tijuana Xoloitzcuintles de Caliente942314:1314

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.