All matches

CSF Balti — Sireti, Moldovan National Division

Moldova, Moldovan National Division

CSF Balti
1.1LLLLL
—
Sireti
1.5LLLDD
Outcome probability
283932
CSF Balti28%Draw39%Sireti32%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1CSF Balti28%3.51—
XDraw39%2.55—
2Sireti32%3.09—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes35%

ours 2.90

No65%

ours 1.53

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricCSF BaltiSiretiCombined
Goals scored0.170.500.67
Conceded4.331.175.50
Corners9.29.39.3
Cards0.00.30.3
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

  1. 1

    Signals

    Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.

    CSF BaltiSireti
    28.80%Possession39.50%
    8Table position7
    14Days of rest14
    0Matches in 14 days0
  2. 2

    Reading

    Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.

    The sides are closely matched, and a draw is likelier than usual at 39%.

    Most likely scorelines:…

  3. 3

    Conclusion

    Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.

    Safe pick
    Risky pick

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

Double chance: Away or draw

72%
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

CSF Balti

  • awaySheriff0:7
  • awayCSCA Buiucani0:3
  • homeMilsami1:3
  • awayPetrocub0:3
  • homeZimbru0:4

Sireti

  • homeMilsami1:2
  • awayPetrocub1:2
  • homeZimbru0:2
  • awayCSM Politehnica Iasi0:0
  • homeCSCA Buiucani0:0

Head to head

  • 08/08/26Moldovan National Division1:1

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
5Milsami1345413:1717
6CSM Politehnica Iasi1343618:1915
7Sireti130768:197
8CSF Balti1312109:425

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.