Both teams to score
Yes65%
ours 1.54
No35%
ours 2.86
All matches
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CSD Independiente del Valle — CD Universidad Católica del Ecuador, Primera Categoría Serie A
Ecuador, Primera Categoría Serie A
CSD Independiente del Valle
4.0WWLDWCD Universidad Católica del Ecuador
2.5LWWDDOutcome probability
642116
CSD Independiente del Valle64%Draw21%CD Universidad Católica del Ecuador16%
Model vs market
Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.
OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1CSD Independiente del Valle1.57—
XDraw4.83—
2CD Universidad Católica del Ecuador6.35—
Average totals by team
A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.
MetricCSD Independiente del ValleCD Universidad Católica del EcuadorCombined
Goals scored1.170.832.00
Conceded0.830.671.50
Corners9.310.39.8
Cards1.00.51.5
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target
The other six metrics — with a subscription
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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.
Why the model reads the match this way
One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.
- 1
Signals
Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.
CSD Independiente del ValleCD Universidad Católica del Ecuador1Table position347.00%Possession55.80%7Days of rest72Matches in 14 days2 - 2
Reading
Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.
CSD Independiente del Valle look the favourite on home turf and current form — a home win is rated at 64%.
Most likely scorelines:…
- 3
Conclusion
Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.
Safe pickRisky pickThe full analysis and both conclusions — with a subscription
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More possible scenarios
Three options at different prices of risk.
Most corners: Home
72%
Form and context
CSD Independiente del Valle
- awayCA Libertad3:2
- homeCSD Macará3:1
- awayBarcelona SC1:2
- homeCD Universidad Católica del Ecuador2:2
- awayCD Leones del Norte3:2
CD Universidad Católica del Ecuador
- awayLiga Deportiva Universitaria de Quito1:2
- homeOrense SC2:1
- awayDelfin SC1:0
- homeSD Aucas1:1
- awayCSD Independiente del Valle2:2
Head to head
- 08/29/26Primera Categoría Serie A2:2
- 05/01/26Primera Categoría Serie A3:2
- 12/14/25Primera Categoría Serie A1:0
- 11/08/25Primera Categoría Serie A0:2
- 06/29/25Primera Categoría Serie A3:0
League table
Both teams and their nearest neighbours.
#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
1CSD Independiente del Valle30242473:3374
CSD Independiente del Valle30242473:33742
CSD Macará31166943:3454
CSD Macará31166943:34543CD Universidad Católica del Ecuador31149852:2951
CD Universidad Católica del Ecuador31149852:29514
SD Aucas31148934:3050
SD Aucas31148934:30505
Liga Deportiva Universitaria de Quito311471033:2549
Liga Deportiva Universitaria de Quito311471033:2549