CS Universitatea Craiova — SSC Farul Constanţa, Liga I

Romania, Liga IOctober 17 at 12:00 AM

CS Universitatea Craiova

3.3WWWDL

—

SSC Farul Constanţa

1.6LWDDD

Outcome probability

7218

CS Universitatea Craiova72%Draw18%SSC Farul Constanţa9%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ

1CS Universitatea Craiova72%1.38—

XDraw18%5.47—

2SSC Farul Constanţa9%10.68—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes39%

ours 2.58

No61%

ours 1.63

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricCS Universitatea CraiovaSSC Farul ConstanţaCombined

Goals scored1.830.832.66

Conceded0.171.171.34

Corners8.810.49.6

Cards0.81.21.9

Offsides

Throw-ins

Fouls

Shots

Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

1
Signals
Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.
CS Universitatea CraiovaSSC Farul Constanţa
1.3Days of rest5.3
3Table position6
2Matches in 14 days1
53.30%Possession51.60%
2
Reading
Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.
CS Universitatea Craiova look the favourite on home turf and current form — a home win is rated at 72%.
Most likely scorelines:…
3
Conclusion
Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.
Safe pick
Risky pick
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