All matches

Crystal Palace FC — Nottingham Forest FC, Premier League

England, Premier League

Crystal Palace FC
2.4DWLWL
—
Nottingham Forest FC
2.4LWDDL
Outcome probability
313040
Crystal Palace FC31%Draw30%Nottingham Forest FC40%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Crystal Palace FC31%3.25—
XDraw30%3.37—
2Nottingham Forest FC40%2.53—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes47%

ours 2.13

No53%

ours 1.89

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricCrystal Palace FCNottingham Forest FCCombined
Goals scored1.670.832.50
Conceded1.831.002.83
Corners7.88.28.0
Cards1.02.33.3
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

  1. 1

    Signals

    Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.

    Crystal Palace FCNottingham Forest FC
    15Table position13
    45.00%Possession46.80%
    14Days of rest14
    0Matches in 14 days0
  2. 2

    Reading

    Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.

    Nottingham Forest FC travel as favourites: despite playing away, a win is rated at 40%.

    Most likely scorelines:…

  3. 3

    Conclusion

    Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.

    Safe pick
    Risky pick

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

Double chance: No draw

69%
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

Crystal Palace FC

  • awayLeeds United FC0:0
  • homeKKS Lech Poznań4:0
  • homeIpswich Town FC2:3
  • awayFulham FC3:2
  • homeManchester City FC1:4

Nottingham Forest FC

  • homeCoventry City FC0:1
  • awayAston Villa FC2:1
  • homeTottenham Hotspur FC0:0
  • awayLiverpool FC2:2
  • homeLeeds United FC0:1

Head to head

  • 02/01/26Premier League1:1
  • 08/24/25Premier League1:1
  • 05/05/25Premier League1:1
  • 10/21/24Premier League0:1

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
11Ipswich Town FC52037:116
12Manchester United FC51228:85
13Nottingham Forest FC51224:55
14Sunderland AFC51136:104
15Crystal Palace FC51136:114
16Aston Villa FC51134:94
17AFC Bournemouth50326:83

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.