All matches

Cruzeiro EC — São Paulo FC, Serie A

Brazil, Serie A

Cruzeiro EC
2.7WLWLW
—
São Paulo FC
2.0WLWWL
Outcome probability
552519
Cruzeiro EC55%Draw25%São Paulo FC19%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Cruzeiro EC55%52%1.811.93+3.5
XDraw25%28%3.933.55-2.7
2São Paulo FC19%24%5.184.13-4.9

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes47%

ours 2.13book 1.80

No53%

ours 1.89book 1.91

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricCruzeiro ECSão Paulo FCCombined
Goals scored2.000.832.83
Conceded1.500.672.17
Corners11.013.012.0
Cards2.71.03.7
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

  1. 1

    Signals

    Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.

    Cruzeiro ECSão Paulo FC
    0Matches in 14 days1
    14Days of rest5.1
    6Table position11
    52.30%Possession50.80%
  2. 2

    Reading

    Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.

    Cruzeiro EC look the favourite on home turf and current form — a home win is rated at 55%. Bookmakers price this at 1.93.

    Most likely scorelines:…

  3. 3

    Conclusion

    Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.

    Safe pick
    Risky pick

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

Total goals: Over 1.5

69%1.27
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

Cruzeiro EC

  • awayEC Vitória3:1
  • awaySantos FC Sao Paulo1:2
  • homeCA Paranaense3:1
  • awayCR Vasco da Gama1:3
  • homeCR Flamengo2:1

São Paulo FC

  • homeSC Internacional1:0
  • awaySE Palmeiras0:2
  • homeCA Mineiro2:0
  • homeClube Atlético Bragantino2:1
  • awayChapecoense AF0:1

Head to head

  • 04/04/26Serie A1:4
  • 08/31/25Serie A1:0
  • 04/13/25Serie A1:1
  • 09/15/24Serie A0:1
  • 06/02/24Serie A0:2

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
4Fluminense FC28139644:3648
5EC Bahia281210643:3546
6Cruzeiro EC28136942:4045
7CA Mineiro27117936:3240
8Santos FC Sao Paulo27108941:4038
9Coritiba FBC281081037:4338
10Clube Atlético Bragantino271061133:3136
11São Paulo FC271061132:3036
12Botafogo FR28981141:4535
13EC Vitória28961328:4233

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.