Croatia — Spain, UEFA Nations League

International, UEFA Nations LeagueOctober 6 at 06:45 PM

Croatia

2.6LWLWW

—

Spain

3.1WWWWW

Outcome probability

382339

Croatia38%Draw23%Spain39%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ

1Croatia38%2.63—

XDraw23%4.38—

2Spain39%2.56—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes58%

ours 1.72

No42%

ours 2.38

Over 2.5 goals

This market opens with a subscription.

See plans

Over 9.5 corners

This market opens with a subscription.

See plans

Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricCroatiaSpainCombined

Goals scored1.001.332.33

Conceded0.670.501.17

Corners8.89.08.9

Cards1.30.82.0

Offsides

Throw-ins

Fouls

Shots

Shots on target

The other six metrics — with a subscription

Free full access for 3 days when you sign up

Start free Plans

Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

1
Signals
Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.
CroatiaSpain
28Table position3
51.80%Possession59.30%
3.1Days of rest3
3Matches in 14 days3
2
Reading
Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.
Spain travel as favourites: despite playing away, a win is rated at 39%.
Most likely scorelines:…
3
Conclusion
Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.
Safe pick
Risky pick
The full analysis and both conclusions — with a subscription
Free full access for 3 days when you sign up
Start free Plans