Criciuma EC — América FC - Minas Gerais, Serie B

Brazil, Serie BOctober 12 at 10:30 PM

Criciuma EC

2.0WLLLW

—

América FC - Minas Gerais

1.0LLLWL

Outcome probability

6621

Criciuma EC66%Draw21%América FC - Minas Gerais13%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ

1Criciuma EC66%1.52—

XDraw21%4.69—

2América FC - Minas Gerais13%7.78—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes39%

ours 2.57

No61%

ours 1.64

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricCriciuma ECAmérica FC - Minas GeraisCombined

Goals scored0.500.330.83

Conceded1.330.832.16

Corners11.511.011.3

Cards2.51.84.3

Offsides

Throw-ins

Fouls

Shots

Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

1
Signals
Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.
Criciuma ECAmérica FC - Minas Gerais
5Table position19
2Matches in 14 days3
65.00%Possession49.30%
4Days of rest5
2
Reading
Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.
Criciuma EC look the favourite on home turf and current form — a home win is rated at 66%.
Most likely scorelines:…
3
Conclusion
Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.
Safe pick
Risky pick
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