Connah's Quay Nomads FC — Llandudno FC, Welsh Premier League

Wales, Welsh Premier LeagueOctober 24 at 11:30 AM

Connah's Quay Nomads FC

2.5WWWLD

—

Llandudno FC

1.9LLDLW

Outcome probability

7118

Connah's Quay Nomads FC71%Draw18%Llandudno FC11%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ

1Connah's Quay Nomads FC71%1.41—

XDraw18%5.58—

2Llandudno FC11%8.81—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes43%

ours 2.31

No57%

ours 1.76

Over 2.5 goals

This market opens with a subscription.

See plans

Over 9.5 corners

This market opens with a subscription.

See plans

Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricConnah's Quay Nomads FCLlandudno FCCombined

Goals scored1.501.002.50

Conceded0.501.832.33

Corners11.89.510.6

Cards1.52.84.3

Offsides

Throw-ins

Fouls

Shots

Shots on target

The other six metrics — with a subscription

Free full access for 3 days when you sign up

Start free Plans

Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

1
Signals
Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.
Connah's Quay Nomads FCLlandudno FC
3Table position9
54.80%Possession49.30%
14Days of rest14
0Matches in 14 days0
2
Reading
Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.
Connah's Quay Nomads FC look the favourite on home turf and current form — a home win is rated at 71%.
Most likely scorelines:…
3
Conclusion
Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.
Safe pick
Risky pick
The full analysis and both conclusions — with a subscription
Free full access for 3 days when you sign up
Start free Plans