All matches

Colwyn Bay FC — Cardiff Metropolitan University FC, Welsh Premier League

Wales, Welsh Premier League

Colwyn Bay FC
2.2WWWWL
—
Cardiff Metropolitan University FC
1.9WDLDD
Outcome probability
562420
Colwyn Bay FC56%Draw24%Cardiff Metropolitan University FC20%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Colwyn Bay FC56%1.79—
XDraw24%4.12—
2Cardiff Metropolitan University FC20%5.06—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes47%

ours 2.13

No53%

ours 1.89

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricColwyn Bay FCCardiff Metropolitan University FCCombined
Goals scored2.170.672.84
Conceded0.500.671.17
Corners8.311.09.6
Cards1.51.53.0
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

  1. 1

    Signals

    Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.

    Colwyn Bay FCCardiff Metropolitan University FC
    5Table position7
    56.30%Possession43.00%
    13.1Days of rest14
    1Matches in 14 days1
  2. 2

    Reading

    Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.

    Home advantage and current form favour Colwyn Bay FC: a home win is rated at 56%.

    Most likely scorelines:…

  3. 3

    Conclusion

    Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.

    Safe pick
    Risky pick

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

Total corners: Under 11.5

72%
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

Colwyn Bay FC

  • homeHaverfordwest County AFC1:0
  • homeBarry Town United FC5:2
  • awayHolywell Town FC5:0
  • homeConnah's Quay Nomads FC2:1
  • awayPenybont FC0:1

Cardiff Metropolitan University FC

  • homeHaverfordwest County AFC1:0
  • homeCaernarfon Town FC2:2
  • awayConnah's Quay Nomads FC0:1
  • awayFlint Town United FC1:1
  • homeCambrian & Clydach Vale FC2:2

Head to head

  • 10/11/25Welsh Premier League0:0
  • 09/06/25Welsh Premier League4:1

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
3Connah's Quay Nomads FC1181227:825
4Caernarfon Town FC1172235:1323
5Colwyn Bay FC1171321:1422
6Barry Town United FC1171326:2022
7Cardiff Metropolitan University FC1153322:1318
8Cambrian & Clydach Vale FC1153321:2318
9Llandudno FC1151521:1816

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.