All matches

Clube Náutico Capibaribe — Grêmio Novorizontino, Serie B

Brazil, Serie B

Clube Náutico Capibaribe
1.8WLDLW
—
Grêmio Novorizontino
2.6DLDWW
Outcome probability
322939
Clube Náutico Capibaribe32%Draw29%Grêmio Novorizontino39%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Clube Náutico Capibaribe32%3.14—
XDraw29%3.44—
2Grêmio Novorizontino39%2.56—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes50%

ours 2.02

No50%

ours 1.98

Over 2.5 goals

This market opens with a subscription.

See plans

Over 9.5 corners

This market opens with a subscription.

See plans

Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricClube Náutico CapibaribeGrêmio NovorizontinoCombined
Goals scored1.331.332.66
Conceded1.500.832.33
Corners11.812.011.9
Cards1.61.63.2
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

The other six metrics — with a subscription

Free full access for 3 days when you sign up

Start freePlans

Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

  1. 1

    Signals

    Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.

    Clube Náutico CapibaribeGrêmio Novorizontino
    14Table position4
    5.9Days of rest6.9
    53.80%Possession53.80%
    2Matches in 14 days2
  2. 2

    Reading

    Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.

    Grêmio Novorizontino travel as favourites: despite playing away, a win is rated at 39%.

    Most likely scorelines:…

  3. 3

    Conclusion

    Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.

    Safe pick
    Risky pick

    The full analysis and both conclusions — with a subscription

    Free full access for 3 days when you sign up

    Start freePlans

More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

Total goals: Over 1.5

71%
High variancelow probability, high price

Two more scenarios — with a subscription

Free full access for 3 days when you sign up

Start freePlans

Form and context

Clube Náutico Capibaribe

  • homeSC do Recife3:1
  • awayCuiabá EC0:3
  • homeOperário Ferroviário EC3:3
  • awayAmérica FC - Minas Gerais1:2
  • homeBotafogo FC Ribeirão Preto1:0

Grêmio Novorizontino

  • homeSão Bernardo FC0:0
  • awayCeará SC1:2
  • homeCuiabá EC1:1
  • awayBotafogo FC Ribeirão Preto3:1
  • homeAvai FC3:1

Head to head

  • 06/14/26Serie B2:2

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
2EC Juventude30158732:1953
3Fortaleza EC301410635:2652
4Grêmio Novorizontino30149749:2751
5Criciuma EC30148831:2750
6AC Goianiense301310737:2749
7Operário Ferroviário EC30139843:3848
8Clube de Regatas Brasil301461045:4148
9SC do Recife301111840:3244
10Cuiabá EC301013730:2543
11São Bernardo FC301191040:3142
12Athletic Club (Minas Gerais)301012836:3342
13Goiás EC301261230:3642
14Clube Náutico Capibaribe301181138:3741
15Ceará SC30991233:3936
16Botafogo FC Ribeirão Preto30981334:3635

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

Full breakdown, scenarios and analysis — with a subscription

Free full access for 3 days when you sign up

PlansSign in

Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.