All matches

Club Universidad Nacional — Tigres UANL, Liga MX

Mexico, Liga MX

Club Universidad Nacional
2.2LDLWL
—
Tigres UANL
2.4WLDDD
Outcome probability
452728
Club Universidad Nacional45%Draw27%Tigres UANL28%

Model vs market

Our probability against the one implied by the bookmaker price. The Δ column is the gap in percentage points.

OutcomeModelMarketΔ
1Club Universidad Nacional45%2.22—
XDraw27%3.70—
2Tigres UANL28%3.58—

Quick markets

The three most common questions — our probability next to the bookmaker line.

Both teams to score

Yes48%

ours 2.08

No52%

ours 1.93

Over 2.5 goals

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Over 9.5 corners

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Average totals by team

A plain average for each side over its most recent matches — what the totals grow out of. A fact, not a model forecast.

MetricClub Universidad NacionalTigres UANLCombined
Goals scored0.500.170.67
Conceded1.170.331.50
Corners12.37.39.8
Cards1.01.32.3
Offsides
Throw-ins
Fouls
xG
Shots
Shots on target

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Average over the last 5 completed matches of each team. The combined column adds the two sides; only corners are averaged, because they already arrive as a match total.

Why the model reads the match this way

One argument in three stages: what the data shows, how the model reads it, and what follows.

  1. 1

    Signals

    Standing, freshness and possession. Biggest gaps first.

    Club Universidad NacionalTigres UANL
    3Matches in 14 days2
    3Days of rest4
    12Table position15
    45.00%Possession50.00%
  2. 2

    Reading

    Written from the numbers of this run, not prepared in advance.

    Home advantage and current form favour Club Universidad Nacional: a home win is rated at 45%.

    Most likely scorelines:…

  3. 3

    Conclusion

    Two options at different prices of risk, and the largest gaps against the market.

    Safe pick
    Risky pick

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More possible scenarios

Three options at different prices of risk.

Conservativehigh probability, modest price
Basebalance of probability and price

Double chance: No draw

70%
High variancelow probability, high price

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Form and context

Club Universidad Nacional

  • homeAtlético San Luis2:3
  • awayCSyD Atlas de Guadalajara1:1
  • awayCD Guadalajara0:3
  • homeClub León3:1
  • awayClub Tijuana Xoloitzcuintles de Caliente0:2

Tigres UANL

  • homePuebla FC1:0
  • awayFC Juárez0:2
  • awayCF Monterrey0:0
  • homeClub Necaxa1:1
  • awayClub Santos Laguna0:0

Head to head

  • 01/15/26Liga MX1:0
  • 09/21/25Liga MX1:1
  • 04/20/25Liga MX1:2
  • 09/01/24Liga MX1:3

League table

Both teams and their nearest neighbours.

#TeamPWDLGoalsPts
10CF Monterrey941416:1413
11CF Pachuca1033415:1112
12Club Universidad Nacional1033414:1612
13Atlético San Luis1033414:1812
14Club Atlante1025312:1511
15Tigres UANL1024410:1310
16Club Santos Laguna1031610:1510
17Club Necaxa1022612:208

Full breakdown

Every market the model prices. Our probability on the left, fair odds and the bookmaker line on the right.

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Probabilities are a model estimate, not a guarantee.